"The trend in Hamilton CMA total housing starts increased slightly in November 2015, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase. This month's increase in the trend was mainly due to a high number of apartment starts, offsetting the decline in single-detached housing starts. Employment, particularly full-time, has grown this year for young adults (aged 25 to 44)," said Abdul Kargbo, CMHC's Senior Market Analyst for Hamilton and Brantford CMAs. "Combined with relatively low mortgage rates, this has increased confidence among young adults about purchasing big ticket items such as a house."
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next. The multiples segment includes apartments, rows and semi-detached homes.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 2,424 units in November, down from 4,248 units in October. Contrary to the previous month, November's decline in the SAAR measure was broadly based among all dwelling types. This highlights the general slowdown in residential construction across Hamilton, as builders continue to manage a high level of new home inventory.
Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables
As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.
(1) All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.
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