Saturday 22 July 2017

Market Snapshot: July 9-15

Local MLS® Sales Data
All Hamilton Real Estate Districts Combined*


Total Sales: 199
Average Price: $463,796
Median Price: $442,500
Avg Days On Market: 22

All stats recovered a bit.  Average time on market backed down to 22 days again, and sales volume jumped back up.  Average sale price this week is still lower than it was in the heat of the spring market, but also recovered significantly.

Average price varies by district. Call to discuss sales data for your specific area, or for a sale price estimate specific to your property. **


*Ancaster, Dundas, Glanbrook, Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Waterdown 

** Not intended to solicit clients currently under contract.

Saturday 15 July 2017

Market Snapshot: July 2-8

Local MLS® Sales Data
All Hamilton Real Estate Districts Combined*


Total Sales: 151
Average Price: $410,002
Median Price: $415,000
Avg Days On Market: 25

Average time on market continued to creep up from 22 to 25 days, but is still below past norms for a balanced market (more like 35-40 days).  Average sale price this week continues to be quite a bit lower than the last few months. Sales volume also dropped, most likely due to two "holiday weekend" days after Canada Day.

Average price varies by district. Call to discuss sales data for your specific area. 

*Ancaster, Dundas, Glanbrook, Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Waterdown

Wednesday 12 July 2017

Bank of Canada raises interest rates - what now?

Did the Bank of Canada interest rate that affects variable rate mortgages just go up? 

[Yes, it did.]

And yes it might [affect your loans and debts], including a variable rate mortgage if you went that route. I sincerely hope it isn't enough to put you under water. If that is the case, I'm sorry to hear it and it won't matter what else I say because your situation is your situation.

But as far as the rate increase itself goes, let's not be dramatic: it's still much lower than historical norms.  And far from the worst it has ever been

This becomes pretty readily apparent when you look at the history of the interest rate, as available in [easily readable format on tradingeconomics.com].  Click on the 'Max' timeframe and check out where it was before 1995.

Sure, there are lots of risk factors in the market right now. There always are. This interest rate increase shouldn't spark a massive economic shut-down, but consumer sentiment can be a fickle thing.  [As I suggested yesterday], skewed perceptions in the market can themselves create the adverse conditions that buyers fear.

Until they make a massive interest rate hike, 'keep calm and carry on' as the saying goes.  Feel free to keep an eye on the news, but be careful not to buy into excessive media hype.  Every little increase is a "hike" or "jump" - there are not small upward changes. Such drama sells news, but it's not always a good basis for financial decisions.

If you're concerned about your variable rate mortgage going up more in the future, talk to your [mortgage professional] about the merits of locking in the rate, and maybe even refinancing to pay off other higher interest debts. You'll typically get a higher fixed rate, but it will be at least one more stable number you can plan on.

Tuesday 11 July 2017

What's going on with the market?

There's a lot of uncertainty about what's happening with the market and where things are going to go.  So the question on everyone's mind is, "Just what's going on with the market?"

Unfortunately no one really knows, and that in itself is what's going on in the market.

Because buyers and sellers are just people, the market is always going to be at least partially driven by emotions. So when buyers become concerned about a slowdown, they hold off. And holding off creates the very slowdown they were concerned about.  Add in the sellers who accelerate their plans to sell and list quickly to try to beat the slowdown, and suddenly you have an influx of supply at the same time demand goes down.

If you took emotions out of it, there is no real justification for the slump in the GHTA markets.  The foreign buyer tax that the provincial government implemented only affects about 5% of the market, and only in the areas it applies (it is not province-wide, so foreign buyers can still buy in a large portion of the province without paying the extra tax). Obviously it's not a 100% direct correlation, but statistically that means that if all foreign buyers disappeared, you'd have to have 20 offers on your house before you lost 1.  Oh, so you only have 19 buyers now instead of 20?  Oh, the horror.

The real cause of the slowdown is not a mass exodus of buyers but the market's emotional response.  A moot point, because it still happened, but it is good to understand why it happened.

Add to this the federal government talking about [interest rate increases] and [new rules for mortgage qualification] that will seriously cut buying power even with a large downpayment, and the news that [real estate accounted for 29% of Ontario's economy] in 2016.  (that's construction and purchase prices so doesn't even count the large amount of spin-off business where home buyers go out and buy new furniture, renovate, etc)

No wonder buyers are scratching their heads and wondering what's going on. It sometimes feels like the government is trying to block holes in the dam with sticks of dynamite.

In the short term, my advice for buyers is pretty much what it always is: stay cool and look at actual sale prices.  Minor decreases in price should eventually recover, so think long term if you're shopping for a home or longer term rental investment.  Be very cautious if you're still looking at flipping for quick profits.

On the selling side, be prepared to wait a bit for your sale, and talk frankly with your real estate professional about pricing and where things are in your neighbourhood right now.  Unfortunately, what someone on your street got two months ago may not be what you'll get today - especially if they got it because of competing offers.  Either be ready for this, or be ready to stay put for a while.  This varies depending on where you are in the city, though, because some areas are still selling well.  Again, discuss the specifics of your situation with your REALTOR®.


Saturday 8 July 2017

Market Snapshot: June 25-July 1

Local MLS® Sales Data
All Hamilton Real Estate Districts Combined*


Total Sales: 197
Average Price: $434,687
Median Price: $410,000
Avg Days On Market: 22

Average time on market crept up a touch from 19 days to 22, and average price of this week's sales are quite a bit lower than recent times.  However, the sale volume actually went up a bit this week despite including the beginning of the Canada Day weekend.

Average price varies by district. Call to discuss sales data for your specific area. 

*Ancaster, Dundas, Glanbrook, Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Waterdown

Thursday 6 July 2017

Mixed Bag in June 2017 Market

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 2,756 new listings were processed through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System in June which is 23.8 per cent higher than the same month last year and 28 per cent higher than the 10-year average.

Sales were 21 per cent lower than the same month last year, and were 5.6 per cent lower than the 10-year average.

[CLICK HERE for the full report]

Sunday 2 July 2017

Market Snapshot: June 18-24

Local MLS® Sales Data
All Hamilton Real Estate Districts Combined*


Total Sales: 188
Average Price: $476,496
Median Price: $435,307
Avg Days On Market: 19

Average price varies by district. Call to discuss sales data for your specific area. 

*Ancaster, Dundas, Glanbrook, Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Waterdown