Wednesday, 9 September 2015
August 2015 Housing Starts in Hamilton CMA
"The trend in Hamilton CMA total housing starts increased in August 2015, marking three consecutive monthly increases. This month's increase in the trend measure was broadly based, with starts of all dwelling types trending up. This suggests there has been a general recovery from the decline seen during the first half of the year, particularly for multi-unit housing. Strong job creation and relatively low mortgage rates continued to support housing demand. Specifically, this August marked the sixth straight month of growth in Hamilton's total employment," said Abdul Kargbo, CMHC's Senior Market Analyst for Hamilton and Brantford CMAs.
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next. The multiples segment includes apartments, rows and semi-detached homes.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 1,889 units in August, down from 2,615 units in July, following four consecutive monthly increases. This month's decline in the SAAR measure could be transitory due to the volatile nature of apartment starts. Improving employment conditions coupled with low mortgage rates will translate into higher housing starts in the coming months.
(1) All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.