TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Sept. 9, 2015) - Housing starts in Hamilton
Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending up at 1,822 units in August
compared to 1,701 units in July, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing
Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly
seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)(1) of housing starts.
"The trend in Hamilton CMA total housing starts increased in August 2015,
marking three consecutive monthly increases. This month's increase in the trend
measure was broadly based, with starts of all dwelling types trending up. This
suggests there has been a general recovery from the decline seen during the
first half of the year, particularly for multi-unit housing. Strong job creation
and relatively low mortgage rates continued to support housing demand.
Specifically, this August marked the sixth straight month of growth in
Hamilton's total employment," said Abdul Kargbo, CMHC's Senior Market Analyst
for Hamilton and Brantford CMAs.
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing
starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more
complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations,
analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely
driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from
one month to the next. The multiples segment includes apartments, rows and
semi-detached homes.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 1,889 units in August, down from 2,615 units
in July, following four consecutive monthly increases. This month's decline in
the SAAR measure could be transitory due to the volatile nature of apartment
starts. Improving employment conditions coupled with low mortgage rates will
translate into higher housing starts in the coming months.
(1) All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the
trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly
figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to
reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment
allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the
next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of
starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months.
This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts
as well as to historical annual levels.
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