Market Media Monday for July 1, 2024

A curated list of recent headlines relevant to real estate in Canada, with short excerpts. Click each headline link to read the full article on the source site.

[ Mortgage Professionals Canada Survey: Mortgage Anxiety vs. Ownership Confidence ]
On June 11, 2024, Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC) released the results of their Semi-Annual State of the Housing Market Report. This survey highlights growing anxiety among mortgage consumers, especially about the financial implications of renewing mortgages at potentially higher interest rates.

[ A Third of Canadian First-Time Homebuyers Need 6-Figure “Gifts”: CIBC ]
Canadian first-time buyers require a little, okay—a lottle help from friends and family. Nearly a third (31%) of first-time buyers needed a gift to help buy a home in the bank’s 2024 YTD data. That’s up from 20% back in 2015, which seemed high back then. 

[ Canadian Mortgage Arrears Rate To Rise 50% In 2024: Fitch ]
Canada’s mortgages in arrears are expected to see a sharp increase after the recent record low. The arrears rate is forecast to rise to 0.25% to 0.3% by the end of the year. If it hits the high end, the rate will have climbed 50% from the end of last year, and doubled the record low also in 2023. 

[ Canadian GDP On Track To Outperform, Weakness Confined To Housing ]
Canada’s economy might be stronger than expected according to this week’s data. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows real gross domestic product (GDP) grew in April. Even with preliminary numbers showing growth stalling in May, output is still set to outperform the central bank’s expectations. Most weakness is contained to just a few sectors, including housing—which is providing a drag despite increased state-stimulus. 

[ Why hundreds of thousands of people are leaving the city for other parts of Canada ]
Toronto once reliably lost about 20,000 more people to other cities in Canada than it lured in from around the country. But in 2017, that number doubled to 40,000. And then it doubled again. In the past two years, 220,000 more Canadians have abandoned Ontario’s capital than arrived.

[ Interest rate cuts won't fix Canada's housing affordability crisis ]
Since interest rates began to rise in early 2022, housing affordability in Canada has worsened. And while the Bank of Canada’s recent and expected rate cuts may improve affordability, a review from Desjardins Economic Studies concluded that a return to pre-pandemic levels is unlikely.